Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +9 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -3.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (+6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -1.2 (+7.8) | 134.4 (+6.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -2.0 (+7.0) | 134.6 (+6.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -2.9 (+6.1) | 135.5 (+5.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -2.3 (+6.7) | 134.9 (+6.1) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | SBU 63 – 57 GMU |
| Feb 28, 2026 | GMU 71 – 58 SBU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | GMU 77 – 73 SBU |
| Jan 22, 2025 | GMU 75 – 62 SBU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | GMU 69 – 60 SBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 12-5 |
| Home | 10-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#108) | 4.9 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#147) | 1.68 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#137) | 1.80 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#137) | 0.580 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 78.3% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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