Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +11 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -7.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -4.3 (+6.7) | 140.2 (-7.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -4.5 (+6.5) | 139.8 (-6.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -4.7 (+6.3) | 139.2 (-6.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -3.9 (+7.1) | 139.8 (-6.8) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | JOES 97 – 90 DUQ |
| Jan 30, 2025 | JOES 76 – 72 DUQ |
| Jan 9, 2025 | DUQ 85 – 81 JOES |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DUQ 66 – 56 JOES |
| Jan 20, 2024 | JOES 71 – 69 DUQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 6-24 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 1-16 |
| Home | 9-7 | 3-11 |
| Away | 1-10 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L17 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#148) | -3.1 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#187) | -0.77 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.00 (#172) | -0.66 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#178) | 0.448 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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