Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +9 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -4.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-23.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -3.9 (-5.1) | 141.7 (-22.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -4.0 (-5.0) | 140.9 (-21.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -3.9 (-5.1) | 141.7 (-22.7) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -4.1 (-4.9) | 143.7 (-24.7) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | ARK 93 – 90 MISS |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ARK 94 – 87 MISS |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MISS 83 – 80 ARK |
| Jan 9, 2025 | MISS 73 – 66 ARK |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MISS 77 – 51 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-8 | 17-1 |
| Away | 2-7 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#120) | 11.0 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#131) | 1.83 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#119) | 2.37 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#165) | 0.574 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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