Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +7 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | MRST -6.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -3.7 (-10.7) | 130.3 (+0.7) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -4.4 (-11.4) | 131.1 (-0.1) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -4.2 (-11.2) | 132.7 (-1.7) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -4.2 (-11.2) | 132.5 (-1.5) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SPU 63 – 56 MRST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SPU 69 – 59 MRST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | SPU 57 – 52 MRST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | MRST 56 – 51 SPU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SPU 69 – 60 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-6 |
| Home | 7-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 7-9 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 62.9 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#149) | -2.2 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#225) | -0.29 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#204) | -0.35 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#202) | 0.504 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 34.2% |
Game Analysis
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