Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +4 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -9.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -8.5 (-4.5) | 140.5 (+1.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -7.3 (-3.3) | 136.5 (+5.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -6.3 (-2.3) | 136.8 (+5.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -7.5 (-3.5) | 139.1 (+2.9) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UMBC 91 – 52 NJIT |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UMBC 87 – 74 NJIT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UMBC 95 – 91 NJIT |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UMBC 87 – 64 NJIT |
| Mar 1, 2024 | UMBC 79 – 60 NJIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | NJIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 6-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 62.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#231) | -9.4 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#268) | -1.38 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#259) | -2.00 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#273) | 0.420 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | NJIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.1% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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