Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Patriot League · Stabler Arena · January 27, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread ARMY -1.0 Home covered
O/U 143.0 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total LEH win
Actual LEH +13 155 Won
Massey LEH -0.3 (+12.7) — —
Massey Totals — 145.9 (+9.1) —
Bradley-Terry — — 30% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 28% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ ARMY -1.7 (+14.7) 142.5 (+12.5) 38% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML LEH -0.2 (+12.8) 144.0 (+11.0) 51% ✓
Baseline ML LEH -0.7 (+12.3) 144.2 (+10.8) 54% ✓
Baseline Plus ML ARMY -0.0 (+13.0) 143.3 (+11.7) 50% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 28, 2026 ARMY 67 – 64 LEH
Dec 31, 2025 ARMY 85 – 78 LEH
Mar 1, 2025 LEH 89 – 67 ARMY
Jan 11, 2025 ARMY 74 – 69 LEH
Feb 21, 2024 LEH 85 – 54 ARMY

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LEH ARMY
Overall 13-19 15-16
Conference 10-8 9-9
Home 9-7 10-4
Away 4-12 4-12
Neutral 0-0 1-0
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 68.4 69.1
Avg Pts Against 71.6 72.1
Massey -8.7 (#308) -5.6 (#264)
Bradley-Terry -1.94 (#319) -0.50 (#219)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.66 (#328) -1.09 (#250)
RPI 0.402 (#323) 0.487 (#188)
Shooting & Four Factors LEH ARMY
FG% 44.3% 43.4%
3PT% 35.5% 32.4%
REB / G 33.5 36.6
OREB / G 7.0 11.0
AST / TO 0.93 0.91
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.8% 48.9%
TOV% 20.3% 19.4%
ORB% 21.3% 29.8%
FT Rate 19.6% 20.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.6% 52.5%
Opp TOV% 14.6% 19.7%
DRB% 72.4% 72.6%
Opp FT Rate 24.1% 14.1%

Game Analysis

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