Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +14 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -1.6 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -0.4 (+13.6) | 146.4 (-10.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -0.7 (+13.3) | 148.3 (-12.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -0.0 (+14.0) | 148.6 (-12.6) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -0.1 (+14.1) | 147.9 (-11.9) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MER 89 – 86 SAM |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SAM 69 – 49 MER |
| Feb 6, 2025 | SAM 100 – 79 MER |
| Jan 16, 2025 | SAM 75 – 74 MER |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SAM 70 – 57 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#237) | -1.7 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#172) | 0.36 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#194) | 0.22 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#181) | 0.519 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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