Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +18 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -4.8 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (-21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -3.5 (+14.5) | 131.8 (-15.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -4.3 (+13.7) | 136.8 (-20.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -4.1 (+13.9) | 137.9 (-21.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -4.3 (+13.7) | 135.5 (-19.5) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | AMER 76 – 67 HC |
| Jan 10, 2026 | HC 84 – 73 AMER |
| Jan 18, 2025 | AMER 74 – 65 HC |
| Jan 5, 2025 | AMER 75 – 64 HC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HC 58 – 56 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-5 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-16 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -13.8 (#345) | -15.1 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#320) | -3.62 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.36 (#320) | -4.38 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#332) | 0.320 (#358) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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