Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +4 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | ETSU -3.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.9 (+32.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -2.3 (-6.3) | 130.4 (+25.6) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -2.8 (-6.8) | 131.9 (+24.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -2.7 (-6.7) | 132.3 (+23.7) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -2.8 (-6.8) | 130.7 (+25.3) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ETSU 87 – 75 UNCG |
| Jan 10, 2026 | ETSU 86 – 60 UNCG |
| Feb 20, 2025 | ETSU 65 – 49 UNCG |
| Jan 30, 2025 | UNCG 70 – 65 ETSU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ETSU 73 – 62 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 65.1 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#180) | -1.1 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#130) | 0.17 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#136) | 0.18 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#111) | 0.507 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 12.5% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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