Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUCK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +18 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -10.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -9.3 (-8.7) | 133.9 (+10.1) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -9.5 (-8.5) | 135.9 (+8.1) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -9.1 (-8.9) | 137.3 (+6.7) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -9.4 (-8.6) | 135.6 (+8.4) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | NAVY 74 – 69 BUCK |
| Feb 9, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 60 BUCK |
| Jan 8, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 55 BUCK |
| Mar 9, 2025 | NAVY 83 – 77 BUCK |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BUCK 85 – 75 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUCK | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 2-15 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 60.8 |
| Massey | -11.9 (#333) | 1.5 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.36 (#335) | 0.04 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.93 (#333) | 0.16 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.382 (#341) | 0.487 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUCK | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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