Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +34 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | TULN -4.9 (+29.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (+18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TULN -3.8 (+30.2) | 141.4 (+18.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -4.2 (+29.8) | 142.4 (+17.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -4.7 (+29.3) | 142.6 (+17.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -4.1 (+29.9) | 142.6 (+17.4) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | TLSA 90 – 56 TULN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TULN 79 – 77 TLSA |
| Feb 2, 2025 | TULN 59 – 56 TLSA |
| Jan 14, 2024 | TULN 94 – 87 TLSA |
| Jan 22, 2023 | TLSA 81 – 79 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-15 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 4-14 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#127) | 0.8 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#163) | -0.69 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#178) | -0.40 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#154) | 0.451 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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