Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -28.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +34 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -28.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -20.1 (+13.9) | 156.9 (-12.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -20.9 (+13.1) | 158.9 (-14.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -24.1 (+9.9) | 156.9 (-12.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -24.5 (+9.5) | 155.2 (-11.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 5, 2026 | GONZ 82 – 47 LMU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | GONZ 73 – 53 LMU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | GONZ 96 – 68 LMU |
| Feb 16, 2024 | GONZ 91 – 74 LMU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | GONZ 92 – 58 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 3-12 |
| Home | 16-0 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-1 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.2 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 23.2 (#2) | -1.8 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.34 (#8) | 0.54 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.71 (#4) | 0.56 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.619 (#19) | 0.528 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.5% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 42.3 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.0% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.7% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.7% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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