Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | BU +130 COLG -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | BU -1.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -0.0 (+4.0) | 137.6 (+10.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -1.1 (+2.9) | 140.5 (+7.5) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -0.7 (+3.3) | 141.6 (+6.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -0.5 (+3.5) | 139.7 (+8.3) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2026 | BU 85 – 58 COLG |
| Jan 24, 2026 | COLG 80 – 79 BU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BU 93 – 91 COLG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | COLG 87 – 50 BU |
| Feb 8, 2024 | COLG 74 – 64 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 16-2 |
| Home | 11-4 | 15-1 |
| Away | 8-8 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#177) | 1.8 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#197) | -0.64 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#198) | -0.47 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#191) | 0.477 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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