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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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47–23 on winners spread MAE 10.0 70 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Coppin State @ Towson +12.8 144.1 85% 67–83 ✓
UMBC @ UNC Greensboro +11.0 140.8 85% 72–76 ✓
UC San Diego @ George Washington +9.6 142.0 80% 75–70 ✗
Stonehill @ Fordham +11.4 151.3 83% 60–71 ✓
Vermont @ Yale +15.2 138.9 87% 44–73 ✓
Temple @ Richmond +1.3 139.5 57% 49–61 ✓
Southern Indiana @ St. Bonaventure +2.4 146.7 54% 66–80 ✓
Rider @ Rutgers +17.7 134.9 88% 46–76 ✓
Elon @ Jacksonville State +5.9 145.1 69% 53–78 ✓
Weber State @ Abilene Christian +0.6 127.6 51% 77–67 ✗
Northern Arizona @ UT Rio Grande Valley -0.8 148.9 46% 79–91 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Drexel -0.9 130.0 45% 67–59 ✓
Nevada @ Kansas State +1.4 128.2 55% 87–96 ✓
Creighton @ Arkansas -1.9 136.4 39% 90–87 ✓
Marist @ Maryland Eastern Shore +4.7 136.9 63% 59–70 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ UTSA +0.7 133.8 51% 75–82 ✓
Louisiana @ SMU +1.4 145.7 47% 76–72 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Lafayette +2.9 132.5 56% 74–68 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Pittsburgh +4.6 154.9 62% 61–83 ✓
Liberty @ Northwestern +6.2 135.7 75% 52–66 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Utah State +10.4 154.8 82% 85–95 ✓
Alcorn State @ UTEP -0.3 132.1 41% 61–73 ✗
UAlbany @ Presbyterian +0.6 134.9 51% 68–65 ✗
Grambling @ Arizona State +14.0 141.6 88% 49–80 ✓
Syracuse @ St. John's +2.9 150.7 65% 69–76 ✓
Wright State @ UC Riverside +1.4 151.9 58% 65–70 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Pacific +10.3 157.7 83% 69–65 ✗
Sacramento State @ UC Davis +1.1 137.0 53% 71–82 ✓
San Diego State @ Arizona -2.7 158.5 41% 70–87 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Toledo +5.4 145.5 75% 69–82 ✓
Illinois State @ Rhode Island -2.1 135.6 41% 44–57 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Long Island University -5.1 133.9 28% 86–61 ✓
American University @ Georgetown +7.8 143.3 77% 74–70 ✗
NC State @ Kansas -1.6 146.6 43% 74–80 ✗
Charlotte @ Detroit Mercy -0.1 136.9 40% 49–70 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Winthrop +2.7 152.0 62% 87–101 ✓
Chicago State @ Cleveland State +6.5 135.5 73% 63–77 ✓
UT Arlington @ East Carolina +6.4 131.9 77% 65–79 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Tulane +2.0 142.6 58% 71–65 ✗
South Dakota @ Sam Houston +15.1 136.3 86% 49–80 ✓
Columbia @ Binghamton +8.7 142.6 79% 79–81 ✓
Radford @ William & Mary -1.7 146.2 42% 51–62 ✗
Texas Tech @ Ohio State +1.9 131.1 59% 73–80 ✓
Wisconsin @ Dayton -0.5 120.8 46% 43–42 ✓
Valparaiso @ Samford +16.8 143.3 88% 49–79 ✓
St. Thomas @ Milwaukee -0.9 139.2 45% 76–72 ✓
Morgan State @ Loyola Marymount +10.4 146.9 83% 80–81 ✓
The Citadel @ LSU New Orleans +4.0 143.8 64% 72–65 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Central Michigan -1.0 137.0 47% 66–82 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Southern Miss +10.0 129.6 81% 58–70 ✓
Maine @ Central Connecticut -2.1 148.3 34% 66–58 ✓
McNeese @ Baylor +25.7 148.7 91% 60–89 ✓
North Florida @ Kentucky +20.6 150.3 90% 56–96 ✓
Jacksonville @ Campbell +14.8 131.9 88% 64–43 ✗
Wright State @ Weber State -4.2 146.5 31% 87–65 ✓
Lipscomb @ Chattanooga +5.7 142.2 71% 72–66 ✗
Creighton @ Arizona -2.0 161.3 43% 79–81 ✗
Drexel @ Indiana State +3.2 135.0 65% 81–85 ✓
Akron @ Nevada +5.4 132.1 74% 58–62 ✓
BYU @ USC -1.2 138.7 42% 76–82 ✗
Tennessee State @ High Point +1.0 143.1 57% 72–77 ✓
Denver @ IU Indianapolis -7.4 135.2 23% 86–64 ✓
Kent State @ Charleston +0.5 155.1 51% 72–74 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Alcorn State +5.9 135.0 76% 98–67 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Air Force +9.7 131.5 84% 51–64 ✓
Bradley @ Liberty -0.9 143.3 45% 44–55 ✗
Marquette @ Georgia Tech -3.8 138.2 35% 84–60 ✓
Little Rock @ Indiana +24.9 161.0 91% 68–87 ✓
Abilene Christian @ UC Riverside +5.0 132.8 73% 65–76 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Miami +16.3 142.2 89% 56–79 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.