Betting Lines
| Spread | WKU -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | TULN -138 WKU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WKU +6 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | TULN -1.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (-8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -2.0 (-8.0) | 142.6 (-6.6) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TULN -1.3 (-7.3) | 141.6 (-5.6) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -1.5 (-7.5) | 143.4 (-7.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -1.8 (-7.8) | 144.0 (-8.0) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-11 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-4 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#175) | -1.6 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#138) | 1.42 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#142) | 1.27 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#82) | 0.545 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 47.3% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 28.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.82 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 19.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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