Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | GTWN -1000 AMER +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +4 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | GTWN -9.1 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (+0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -8.0 (-12.0) | 140.4 (+3.6) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -7.8 (-11.8) | 143.3 (+0.7) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -8.1 (-12.1) | 144.2 (-0.2) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -7.3 (-11.3) | 140.6 (+3.4) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2023 | GTWN 88 – 83 AMER |
| Nov 17, 2021 | GTWN 79 – 57 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-12 | 8-6 |
| Away | 1-11 | 9-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 65.9 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#199) | -3.0 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#155) | -0.68 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#146) | -1.56 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#141) | 0.373 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 14.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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