Betting Lines
| Spread | CLE -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | CLE -450 CHST +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLE +14 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | CLE -12.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLE -6.5 (+7.5) | 134.4 (+5.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLE -7.1 (+6.9) | 134.4 (+5.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLE -6.5 (+7.5) | 135.5 (+4.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLE -7.3 (+6.7) | 135.4 (+4.6) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLE | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 0-0 |
| Home | 13-3 | 8-0 |
| Away | 7-9 | 3-20 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#211) | -6.6 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#206) | -0.08 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#232) | -0.39 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.370 (#311) | 0.531 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLE | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 63.8% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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