Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | ASU -2000 GRAM +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +31 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -19.4 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -18.0 (+13.0) | 144.5 (-15.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -17.9 (+13.1) | 141.6 (-12.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -14.0 (+17.0) | 141.6 (-12.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -16.1 (+14.9) | 141.6 (-12.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-1 |
| Away | 7-6 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 63.1 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#59) | -4.7 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#70) | 0.58 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#57) | 1.23 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.637 (#41) | 0.556 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.5% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 60.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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