Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 120.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -154 WIS +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +1 | 85 | Lost |
| Massey | WIS -0.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 110.1 (-25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIS -1.2 (+0.2) | 124.0 (-39.0) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIS -1.0 (-0.0) | 120.0 (-35.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIS -0.5 (-0.5) | 120.8 (-35.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIS -0.3 (-0.7) | 122.9 (-37.9) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#112) | 3.8 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#105) | 2.00 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#107) | 3.41 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#88) | 0.633 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.2% | 38.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 82.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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