Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | WIN -200 EMU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +14 | 188 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -3.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.1 (+27.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -2.5 (+11.5) | 151.0 (+37.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -3.8 (+10.2) | 149.0 (+39.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -2.7 (+11.3) | 152.0 (+36.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -2.6 (+11.4) | 151.3 (+36.7) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 81.3 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#264) | -8.4 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#256) | -2.77 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#236) | -3.94 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#212) | 0.311 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 22.2% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 35.9% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 63.2% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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