Betting Lines
| Spread | NIU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | LIU +150 NIU -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +25 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | NIU -8.6 (-16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIU -7.3 (-17.7) | 136.7 (+10.3) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIU -6.0 (-19.0) | 136.2 (+10.8) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIU -5.1 (-19.9) | 133.9 (+13.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIU -4.6 (-20.4) | 132.8 (+14.2) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-26 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 1-15 | 9-9 |
| Home | 2-10 | 5-7 |
| Away | 1-14 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.0 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -15.6 (#359) | -7.0 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#284) | -0.59 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#274) | -0.68 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#273) | 0.552 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.5% | 32.7% |
| 3PT% | 25.5% | 20.7% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 37.4% | 36.3% |
| TOV% | 24.1% | 25.5% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.4% | 15.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 64.2% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.