Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | ACU -250 WEB +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WEB +10 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | ACU -0.2 (-10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.6 (+26.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -0.4 (-10.4) | 127.4 (+16.6) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -1.2 (-11.2) | 126.7 (+17.3) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -0.6 (-10.6) | 127.6 (+16.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -0.9 (-10.9) | 126.4 (+17.6) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-17 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#320) | -8.5 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#286) | -1.70 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.26 (#285) | -3.37 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.335 (#334) | 0.379 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 24.2% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 26.6% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 20.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 58.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.5% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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