Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | ARIZ -138 CREI +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +2 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -0.6 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -1.1 (+3.1) | 160.4 (-0.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -2.1 (+4.1) | 158.0 (+2.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -2.0 (+4.0) | 161.3 (-1.3) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -1.4 (+3.4) | 163.6 (-3.6) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 6-4 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#23) | 13.1 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#65) | 2.71 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#79) | 3.94 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#93) | 0.668 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 62.9% | 51.0% |
| 3PT% | 48.0% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 42.8 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 71.0% | 58.8% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 44.2% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 82.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 7.4% |
Game Analysis
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