Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -37.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | BAY -10000 MCN +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +29 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -36.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -25.7 (+3.3) | 148.7 (+0.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -27.5 (+1.5) | 144.4 (+4.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -37.1 (-8.1) | 148.6 (+0.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -35.4 (-6.4) | 149.6 (-0.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 11-23 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 6-8 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 15.3 (#11) | -13.9 (#354) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#58) | -2.66 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.13 (#48) | -4.12 (#344) |
| RPI | 0.627 (#47) | 0.355 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.72 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.1% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.5% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.4% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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