Betting Lines
| Spread | NU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | NU -163 LIB +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +14 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | NU -7.2 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (-15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -6.0 (+8.0) | 135.8 (-17.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -6.8 (+7.2) | 134.7 (-16.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -6.2 (+7.8) | 135.7 (-17.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -6.2 (+7.8) | 137.0 (-19.0) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-5 | 19-1 |
| Away | 7-4 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 62.3 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#58) | 0.3 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#16) | -0.55 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.49 (#16) | -0.42 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#34) | 0.493 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 43.2 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.2% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 35.0% |
Game Analysis
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