Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | SJU -120 SYR +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +7 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -4.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -2.9 (+4.1) | 150.7 (-5.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -3.2 (+3.8) | 147.5 (-2.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -3.0 (+4.0) | 150.1 (-5.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -2.9 (+4.1) | 150.5 (-5.5) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 11-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#77) | 1.9 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#56) | -0.72 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#45) | -1.31 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#94) | 0.485 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 8.5% |
Game Analysis
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