Betting Lines
| Spread | UTEP -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | UTEP -250 ALCN +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTEP +12 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | ALCN -0.6 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -1.6 (+13.6) | 129.6 (+4.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTEP -2.3 (+9.7) | 129.2 (+4.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -0.3 (+12.3) | 132.1 (+1.9) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTEP | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-7 | 7-2 |
| Away | 3-10 | 10-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#122) | 10.9 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#150) | 4.01 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#150) | 6.59 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.695 (#20) | 0.803 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTEP | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 40.4% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 25.3% | 24.6% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 37.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.4% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 60.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.7% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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