Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | GW -375 UCSD +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +5 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | GW -13.1 (-18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -10.2 (-15.2) | 140.5 (+4.5) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -7.6 (-12.6) | 139.6 (+5.4) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -9.6 (-14.6) | 142.0 (+3.0) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GW -9.9 (-14.9) | 142.6 (+2.4) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 14, 2021 | UCSD 75 – 55 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-6 | 4-10 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#216) | -8.0 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#137) | -1.85 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#143) | -2.79 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#205) | 0.427 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.6% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.2% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 34.6% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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