Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | SAM -400 VAL +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +30 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -20.4 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -16.4 (+13.6) | 144.1 (-16.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -16.8 (+13.2) | 143.3 (-15.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -19.8 (+10.2) | 143.4 (-15.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -18.8 (+11.2) | 145.1 (-17.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2023 | SAM 79 – 61 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-15 |
| Home | 13-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 8-7 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#72) | -6.5 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#87) | -0.70 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#105) | -1.26 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#216) | 0.379 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 44.5 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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