Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | VAL +320 SAM -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +18 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -6.1 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -8.2 (-9.8) | 144.0 (-4.0) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -5.4 (-12.6) | 146.6 (-6.6) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -5.6 (-12.4) | 147.0 (-7.0) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -4.6 (-13.4) | 145.6 (-5.6) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2022 | SAM 79 – 49 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 15-3 |
| Home | 6-11 | 18-0 |
| Away | 1-13 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 84.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#313) | 2.5 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#311) | 1.14 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#304) | 1.54 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.405 (#319) | 0.534 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 40.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.7% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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