Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG -1000 UMBC +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -16.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -10.4 (-6.4) | 135.7 (+12.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -11.5 (-7.5) | 138.4 (+9.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -11.0 (-7.0) | 140.8 (+7.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -12.3 (-8.3) | 138.2 (+9.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2021 | UNCG 62 – 51 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-8 |
| Home | 11-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#218) | -12.0 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#223) | -1.48 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#206) | -2.53 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#149) | 0.402 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.7% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.3% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 19.9% |
| FT Rate | 14.9% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 60.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.8% | 13.4% |
Game Analysis
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