Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +11 | 113 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -7.2 (-18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -5.2 (-16.2) | 139.9 (-26.9) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -3.8 (-14.8) | 140.6 (-27.6) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -5.4 (-16.4) | 139.8 (-26.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -5.3 (-16.3) | 141.2 (-28.2) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2022 | UNCG 76 – 72 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 65.1 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#200) | -3.3 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#208) | 0.11 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#224) | -0.06 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#189) | 0.486 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 24.5% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.6% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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