Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | FOR -600 STO +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +11 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | FOR -13.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (-24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -11.4 (-0.4) | 151.3 (-20.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -8.9 (+2.1) | 145.5 (-14.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -13.2 (-2.2) | 148.5 (-17.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -11.8 (-0.8) | 150.1 (-19.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-6 |
| Home | 18-2 | 7-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#205) | -7.5 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#141) | -1.05 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#154) | -2.30 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#121) | 0.459 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 28.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 5.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 24.0% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 19.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.