Betting Lines
| Spread | AMCC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | ALCN +160 AMCC -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMCC +31 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | ALCN -9.5 (-40.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (+31.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMCC -1.4 (-29.6) | 133.6 (+31.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -2.9 (-33.9) | 133.9 (+31.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -5.9 (-36.9) | 135.0 (+30.0) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -4.6 (-35.6) | 134.8 (+30.2) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 7-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 10-10 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#32) | 1.4 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.01 (#3) | 0.37 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.59 (#2) | 0.49 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.803 (#2) | 0.613 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 24.6% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.3% | 26.3% |
| DRB% | 60.9% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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