Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | GT +225 MARQ -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +24 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -6.8 (-17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -4.7 (-19.3) | 142.7 (+1.3) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -4.9 (-19.1) | 141.2 (+2.8) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -3.8 (-20.2) | 138.2 (+5.8) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -3.3 (-20.7) | 138.8 (+5.2) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 29-7 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 17-3 |
| Home | 11-6 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#120) | 9.9 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#100) | 0.43 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#93) | 0.77 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#95) | 0.544 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.5% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.1% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.2% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 61.9% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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