Betting Lines
| Spread | SHSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | SHSU -188 SDAK +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SHSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SHSU +31 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | SHSU -23.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (-8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SHSU -17.8 (+13.2) | 137.5 (-8.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SHSU -16.2 (+14.8) | 136.9 (-7.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SHSU -15.1 (+15.9) | 136.3 (-7.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SHSU -18.5 (+12.5) | 137.2 (-8.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SHSU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-1 | 8-6 |
| Away | 10-6 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.7 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#9) | -7.1 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.08 (#2) | 0.91 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.22 (#4) | 1.41 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.724 (#10) | 0.592 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SHSU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 13.8% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.9% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 79.8% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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