Betting Lines
| Spread | PRES -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | PRES -110 UALB +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UALB +3 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | UALB -0.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRES -1.0 (-4.0) | 134.0 (-1.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRES -1.4 (-4.4) | 130.3 (+2.7) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRES -0.6 (-3.6) | 134.9 (-1.9) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PRES -0.7 (-3.7) | 135.3 (-2.3) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 3-13 |
| Home | 5-9 | 5-6 |
| Away | 0-15 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L18 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.8 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#314) | -7.9 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#310) | -2.83 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.43 (#296) | -4.89 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.347 (#328) | 0.316 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.9% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 22.9% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 15.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.9% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 40.8% |
Game Analysis
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