Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | ARIZ -110 SDSU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +17 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -1.0 (+18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 175.7 (-18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -0.1 (+17.1) | 153.5 (+3.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -2.0 (+19.0) | 158.5 (-1.5) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -1.8 (+18.8) | 160.6 (-3.6) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -0.6 (+16.4) | 162.0 (-5.0) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | ARIZ 68 – 45 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 6-4 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 9-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#23) | 13.4 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#65) | 3.48 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#79) | 5.40 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#93) | 0.852 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 62.9% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 48.0% | 40.5% |
| REB / G | 42.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 71.0% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 44.2% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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