Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | AF -2000 MVSU +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +13 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | AF -16.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -10.8 (+2.2) | 130.8 (-15.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -10.6 (+2.4) | 128.4 (-13.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -9.7 (+3.3) | 131.5 (-16.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -10.3 (+2.7) | 131.7 (-16.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-9 | 4-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 61.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#266) | -14.6 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#328) | -1.30 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.00 (#319) | -2.18 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.324 (#338) | 0.490 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 41.8% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 23.5% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 59.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.