Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -28.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | IU -8000 LR +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +19 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | IU -32.8 (-13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -29.0 (-10.0) | 153.7 (+1.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -27.9 (-8.9) | 159.2 (-4.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -24.9 (-5.9) | 161.0 (-6.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -30.3 (-11.3) | 156.8 (-1.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 80.9 |
| Massey | 18.0 (#5) | -7.6 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#21) | -1.28 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.88 (#27) | -2.32 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#105) | 0.291 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.0% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.2% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 59.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 59.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.8% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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