Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | USU -500 ORU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +10 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | USU -11.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.1 (+21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -11.2 (-1.2) | 158.0 (+22.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -9.0 (+1.0) | 152.9 (+27.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -10.4 (-0.4) | 154.8 (+25.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -12.0 (-2.0) | 154.3 (+25.7) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 18-0 |
| Home | 14-2 | 16-0 |
| Away | 7-4 | 11-4 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#34) | 6.3 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.97 (#15) | 2.07 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.13 (#22) | 3.40 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.767 (#5) | 0.652 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 36.5% |
| 3PT% | 43.7% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 43.8 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 14.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.4% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 11.7% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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