Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | ECU -200 UTA +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +14 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -9.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.8 (+15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -7.8 (+6.2) | 134.1 (+9.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -8.6 (+5.4) | 132.9 (+11.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -6.4 (+7.6) | 131.9 (+12.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -6.4 (+7.6) | 133.4 (+10.6) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-6 | 6-8 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#162) | -8.9 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#118) | -1.08 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#85) | -1.25 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#190) | 0.474 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 30.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 34.8% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 32.9% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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