Betting Lines
| Spread | KSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | KSU -163 NEV +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KSU +9 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | KSU -1.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.4 (+59.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -1.6 (+7.4) | 131.6 (+51.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -4.0 (+5.0) | 133.4 (+49.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -1.4 (+7.6) | 128.2 (+54.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -1.8 (+7.2) | 128.5 (+54.5) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#41) | 8.0 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#42) | 2.60 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.50 (#38) | 3.75 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#109) | 0.717 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 39.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.8% | 35.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 30.2% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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