Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -225 NKU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +13 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -8.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -6.4 (+6.6) | 145.3 (+5.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -7.3 (+5.7) | 144.5 (+6.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -5.4 (+7.6) | 145.5 (+5.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -5.9 (+7.1) | 146.6 (+4.4) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 10-4 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.9 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 64.7 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#186) | -9.0 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#154) | -1.71 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#133) | -2.04 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#138) | 0.399 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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