Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | INST -163 DREX +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +4 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | INST -4.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.9 (+36.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -3.3 (+0.7) | 137.8 (+28.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -1.0 (+3.0) | 139.9 (+26.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -3.2 (+0.8) | 135.0 (+31.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -2.6 (+1.4) | 136.2 (+29.8) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 63.0 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#88) | 1.1 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#79) | -0.14 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#67) | 0.48 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#100) | 0.441 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 37.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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