Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | PITT -1000 FDU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +22 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -4.8 (+17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.5 (-18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -4.8 (+17.2) | 151.3 (-7.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -6.8 (+15.2) | 148.7 (-4.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -4.6 (+17.4) | 154.9 (-10.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -4.4 (+17.6) | 153.1 (-9.1) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-5 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#299) | -4.7 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#270) | -1.34 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#249) | -2.38 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#250) | 0.314 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 62.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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