Betting Lines
| Spread | NOLA -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | NOLA +110 CIT -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIT +7 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | NOLA -6.0 (-13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NOLA -2.1 (-9.1) | 139.4 (-2.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NOLA -3.1 (-10.1) | 139.2 (-2.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NOLA -4.0 (-11.0) | 143.8 (-6.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NOLA -4.0 (-11.0) | 143.1 (-6.1) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-9 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -9.3 (#332) | -8.1 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#227) | -0.79 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#227) | -1.28 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#158) | 0.423 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 28.5 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 5.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.45 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 34.8% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 16.2% |
| FT Rate | 13.9% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.7% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 14.5% |
Game Analysis
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