Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | MIA -4000 SFBK +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +23 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -23.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -19.4 (+3.6) | 135.8 (-0.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MIA -21.0 (+2.0) | 137.5 (-2.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | MIA -16.3 (+6.7) | 142.2 (-7.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -19.0 (+4.0) | 141.6 (-6.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-9 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 63.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#121) | -12.8 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#89) | -0.26 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#84) | -1.24 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#140) | 0.537 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 37.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 40.8% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 62.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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