Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | SMU +100 UL +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +4 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -0.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -1.4 (-5.4) | 146.3 (+1.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -1.2 (-5.2) | 143.4 (+4.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -1.4 (-5.4) | 145.7 (+2.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -1.0 (-5.0) | 146.3 (+1.7) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-9 | 14-0 |
| Away | 1-11 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#239) | 3.9 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#207) | 2.18 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#185) | 2.69 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#202) | 0.722 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.1% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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