Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Hytche Center · November 23, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread UMES -2.5 Home covered
O/U 128.5 Over
Money UMES -138 / MRST +140
Model Predictions
Spread Total UMES win
Actual UMES +11 129 Won
Massey UMES -7.8 (+3.2) — —
Massey Totals — 134.5 (-5.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 95% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 99% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UMES -2.3 (+8.7) 134.0 (-5.0) 50% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML UMES -4.7 (+6.3) 136.9 (-7.9) 63% ✓
Baseline ML UMES -4.3 (+6.7) 137.0 (-8.0) 56% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UMES -4.5 (+6.5) 137.7 (-8.7) 57% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 19, 2023 MRST 76 – 52 UMES

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UMES MRST
Overall 18-13 13-20
Conference 9-5 6-14
Home 10-3 5-10
Away 7-9 4-9
Neutral 1-1 4-1
Last 5 0-3 1-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 66.7 63.9
Avg Pts Against 68.9 66.7
Massey -6.8 (#294) -7.3 (#304)
Bradley-Terry -1.07 (#263) -2.40 (#339)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.38 (#246) -3.95 (#341)
RPI 0.365 (#317) 0.324 (#339)
Shooting & Four Factors UMES MRST
FG% 34.5% 39.1%
3PT% 33.8% 34.6%
REB / G 27.3 33.8
OREB / G 8.0 7.5
AST / TO 0.95 0.90
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 41.1% 47.2%
TOV% 18.6% 17.6%
ORB% 21.1% 19.6%
FT Rate 22.6% 17.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 55.9% 51.4%
Opp TOV% 19.9% 21.6%
DRB% 66.7% 76.1%
Opp FT Rate 33.8% 21.9%

Game Analysis

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